For many years now, I have made a point of seeing every movie nominated for Best Picture. But this year, an unforseen advantage of the pandemic is that I had the time and ability to see every movie nominated not just for Best Picture, but for every category.
For the record, there are 24 categories, and a total of 56 movies got nominations. For each catogory, I rank the movies based on my personal opinions of them. I also note what I think is most likely to win, which as you’ll see doesn’t often align with the one I think should win.
The first mention of any movie includes a link to where it can be viewed online, assuming it is streaming somewhere. Where I note that the movie is PVOD, you will need to pay to view it; otherwise, it is included in the subscription price of whatever service offers it. Where possible, I have linked directly to the film, but not all services allow this, so in those cases I can only link to the streaming service’s home page. Note that some of the links below are affiliate links, and I may earn from qualifying purchases.
Best Picture
Each year, up to ten movies can be nominated for Best Picture, but this year, as has become fairly common, only eight received enough vote for a nomination.
What will win: Nomadland
What should win: Sound of Metal
It’s fairly rare that I can say that I actually enjoyed all of the Best Picture nominees, but this year was different. None of these films is bad, although there are of course ones that are better than others.
My personal favorite of this bunch, Sound of Metal is a moving look at a hard-metal rocker who has to cope with losing his hearing, and with it, everything that is important to him. Solid performaces by Best Actor nominee Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke and fellow nominee Paul Raci, along with wonderful pacing by (tragically overlooked) director Darius Marder make this one to watch. Sound of Metal is available on Amazon Prime Video.
The Father was the one nominee I could have chosen to see in theaters, but to be fair to the others that I had to watch at home, I decided to skip the theatrical run. Thankfully, the movie is so well executed that I don’t think it lost much (or at least, it lost as much as any movie being watched at home.) Anthony Hopkins awards-worthy performance is of course the main feature of the movie, but his co-stars, including fellow nominee Olivia Colman, make this look at a man slowly losing his battle with dementia one to watch. The Father may still be in theaters near you; if not, it is available to watch via premium video-on-demand (PVOD) on Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, and YouTube.
Nomadland, the all-but-certain winner in this category, is an undeniably good movie. Best Actress nominee Frances McDormand and an overlooked performance by David Strathairn center this film about a woman who lives a nomadic lifestyle out of her van after the Great Recession destroyed the life she had. The show celebrates both the people who chose this way of life, and the gorgeous countryside of Nevada, Wyoming, South Dakota and California. Avoiding all of the normal tropes, writer/director Chloé Zhao (who is also nominated in both of those categories) instead tells the story with a gentle hand, letting her star do the heavy emotional lifting. Nomadland is available on Hulu.
In this era of long-overdue heightened awareness of sexual assault, Promising Young Woman takes an uncompromising look at one woman’s method of coping with her trauma: she dresses provocatively, goes to clubs and pretends to get drunk so that men will try to take advantage of her so that she can exact revenge. All that changes when a former classmate enters her life, leading to a conclusion that is truly unexpected. Carey Mulligan’s nominated performance is one of the best we’ve seen from an actress who seems to always deliver. Promising Young Woman is available on PVOD from Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, and Apple TV.
Minari is a movie about a Korean couple who move their families to try their hand at farming in rural America. The mostly-subtitled movie provides a look at family dynamics, the struggles of first- and second-generation families, and the challenges that face a lot of marriages, particularly in financially uncertain circumstances. Both of the movies’ leads, Steven Yuen and Yuh-Jung Youn, have picked up well-deserved first nominations for the movie. Minari is available via PVOD from Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, and Apple TV.
Judas and the Black Messiah, one of the three true stories in the mix, explores the FBI’s investigation into the Black Panthers, and focuses on an informant who infiltrated the organization and provided key intelligence, even as he came to question which side he was really one. Co-stars Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield both picked up nominations in the Supporting Actor category, although I’m definitely not alone in wondering why Kaluuya wasn’t nominated instead for Best Actor, but both were indeed fantastic in the movie. Judas and the Black Messiah is available via PVOD from Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, and Apple TV.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 has Aaron Sorkin doing what Aaron Sorkin does best in this talky retelling of the famous trial of the ringleaders of the protestors at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968. Focusing mostly on the titular trial, but relying heavily on flashbacks to fill in the story, the movie shows how little has really changed in the ways police and the justice system handle violent protests against injustices in America. That the movie was made before the protests of the summer of 2020, and isn’t instead a comment on them, just further proves the point. After a win at the Screen Actor’s Guild, this is the movie most likely to pull an upset on Sunday, but don’t count one it. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is available on Netflix.
Citizen Kane is widely accepted as one of the best films ever made. With Mank, David Fincher provides the backstory on how the movie was written. Focusing primarily on bedridden screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz, the movie is both a retelling of the story behind Kane and a statement on the social norms of the 1930s. With nominations for directing, acting (Gary Oldman) and supporting actress (Amanda Seyfried), in other years this movie might be a strong contender for the big prize, but in a year with many undeniably better films, not to mention it being the sole Best Picture nominee without a writing nod, it’s almost certain to go home empty-handed. Mank is on Netflix and may be playing in local theaters.
Best Director
As is always the case, four of the five nominees for Best Director are for movies also nominated for Best Picture. But this year won’t be one of those rare times when the two awards don’t align.
Who will win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Who should win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
I’ve already commented above on the four movies in this category that are also nominated for Best Picture, but when looking at just directing, I’d rate them in the same order I rated the movies: Nomadland, Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), and Mank (David Fincher). I think there’s very little chance that Zhao doesn’t make history as the first Asian-American woman (and only second woman) to win Best Director.
Bringing up the rear here, both in terms of quality of the film and chances of winning, is odd-man-out Thomas Vinterberg for the Swedish film Another Round. This was one that I truly didn’t get the hype around. Despite solid performances, I felt that the film overall fell flat. But if you want to check it out for yourself, it’s available on Hulu.
Best Actor
Here again we have a category with four nominees that line up with Best Picture, and one that doesn’t. In this case, though, the result will be different.
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Who shuold win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Look, I fully appreciate the emotions surrounding Boseman. We all know that he should have been nominated, and probably should have won, several years ago for Black Panther. And his story about suffering from a terrible disease and yet continuing to show up to work and deliver the high-caliber performances he did is a truly compelling one. But the reailty here is that he’s nominated for a very good performance in an otherwise at-best-mediocre film. (At least he didn’t get nominated for the much, much worse Da 5 Bloods.) The fact that this is the only chance Oscar voters will get to make right their previous mistakes of not nominating and rewarding one of the finest actors of our age does make this win worthwhile, but let’s not pretend that it’s anything other than a posthumous lifetime achievement award, and not a recognition for this one performance. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is on Netflix.
In a year in which Boseman is still with us, there can be absolutely no doubt that the Oscar would have gone to Anthony Hopkins. He turns in the performance of his career (and yes, I am fully aware of what that career has been) in The Father. It’s often easy to say that no one else could have pulled off a particular part, but in this case, it’s true.
The only other actor in the category that should get serious consideration (again, in any other year) is Riz Ahmed, whose performance in Sound of Metal is one that should be studied in acting schools for years to come. Rounding out the category is a great performance by Steven Yeun in Minari and a, well, Gary Oldman performance by Gary Oldman in Mank.
Best Actress
That the Academy has made great strides in inclusion and representation is undeniable. But that four of the five Best Actor movies are nominated for Best Picture, while only two of the Best Actress movies are, shows they still have a long way to go in recognizing that female-led movies can be just as strong as male-led movies.
Who will win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who should win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
This is without question the tightest race this year, with the precursor awards split almost evenly between four of the five women on the list.
If you haven’t followed Carey Mulligan’s career to date, do yourself and favor and add every one of these movies to your watch list. She is without a doubt one of the best actresses working today, and the way that she’s able to show so much pain in what would otherwise be a blank stare throughout Promising Young Woman might finally bring her the recognition she has long deserved.
In a year without a Carey Mulligan part, Frances McDormand probably walks away with another statue on Oscar night. She is almost every scene of Nomadland, and does the most with every one of them. It’s another case of it being hard to imagine anyone else in the role.
Andra Day was likewise brilliant in The United States vs Billie Holiday, and she definitely delivers an Oscar-worthy performance as the titular singer who struggled with alcoholism and substance abuse, along with being the target of an unscrupulous and racist FBI. That she’s not a full-time actress, and that the movie was otherwise completely ignored by the Academy almost certainly dooms her chances. The United States vs Billie Holiday is availale on Hulu.
Viola Davis, in the titular part in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, does well as always, but like Boseman is ultimately dragged down by an otherwise not-great movie.
If you were to turn off Pieces of a Woman about half way through, you’d definitely walk away thinking Vanessa Kirby was a shoe-in for the award. Unfortunately, the second half of the movie drags, and pulls down not only Kirby, but the movie as a whole. The unfortunate decision to cast Shia LeBeouf as her costar certainly doesn’t help. Pieces of a Woman is on Netflix.
Best Supporting Actor
Again, male category means four of the five performances are from Best Picture nominees. Sigh.
Who will win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who should win: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Yes, I have a soft spot for Sound of Metal. I can’t help it. And so I will be rooting for Paul Raci to take home the gold, if for no other reason than he has a legitimate shot at it, unlike costar Riz Ahmed in the already-decided Best Actor category.
Often, a movie that has two nominees from the same movie splits the vote, dooming both, but in this case, I think that Kaluuya’s performance will be enough to overcome that. Add to that the fact that he’s clearly the main character in the film and the already-noted weirdness of his supporting actor nomination, and he probably has this locked up. None of which, by the way, is to take anything away from Lakeith Stanfield and his very strong role in the movie.
Hamilton star Leslie Odom, Jr. showed that he is going to easily make the jump from Broadway to Hollywood in One Night in Miami, and I’m sure this won’t be the only year where I’m writing about him here. But this is not his year. One Night in Miami is available on Amazon Prime Video.
Sacha Baron Cohen has to have somewhat mixed feelings about being nominated for a movie other than his own film, but a nomination is a nomination. While I can’t find anything particularly wrong with his turn as Abbie Hoffman, I didn’t feel it was really the standout performance in the film, either (Eddie Redmayne and Alex Sharp were both much better.)
Best Supporting Actress
Hey, guess what? Only three of these five are from Best Picture nominees. Shocking, I know.
Who will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Who should win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
She may just be in a supporting role, but Yuh-Jung Youn is absolutely the emotional heart of Minari. As a woman who loves her husband enough to move across the country to a place where she knows no one, where she has to live in a trailer, and where she is going to be increasingly isolated living out on a farm, Youn absolutely excels. As the movie explores the family dynamics of three generations of immigrants trying to find their way in America, Youn steals every scene she’s in and delivers one of the year’s best performances by far.
Olivia Colman is another actress who seemingly can do no wrong, and her turn opposite Anthony Hopkins in The Father is definitely a performance to watch.
I’ve been a fan of Amanda Seyfried for a long time, and she’s honestly one of the bright spots in an otherwise just-a-bit-better-than-OK Mank.
The two women in movies not nominated for Best Picture are Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy. And as much as I want the Academy to give equal recognition to movies with strong female performances, I honestly can’t claim to have really enjoyed either of these movies. Yes, Bakalova does well with what she’s given, but the simple fact is that I simply don’t find Cohen’s brand of humor to be funny at all, and I only forced my way through Borat because it was certain to pick up some nominations. Hillbilly Elegy is a much better movie, but still falls flat overall. (If you want to see a much, much better look at the collision between rural and urban America, do yourself a favor and check out Uncle Frank on Amazon Prime Video.) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is also on Amazon Prime Video, and Hillbilly Elegy is on Netflix.
Best Original Screenplay
One of only two categories made up entirely of Best Picture nominees (Editing is the other one), this is a very strong group this year. It’s also the first time every Original Screenplay has been nominated for Best Picture.
Who will win: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Who should win: Abraham Marder, Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance, Sound of Metal
Yes, I know. But no, I’m not going to stop rooting for Sound of Metal in almost every category where it got a nomination. Deal with it.
The Screenplay award almost always goes to a writer/director, so that pretty much means that Fennell, Chung, and Sorkin are the ones most likely to win here. Given that Fennell won the Writer’s Guild award, she’s the favorite, but one shouldn’t ever count out Sorkin in this category.
But honestly, none of the other nominees are bad choices. This really is a win-win category. Still, I promised rankings for each category, so here I’d rank the four movies after Sound of Metal as Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, then Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, then Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas, and Kenneth Lucas for Judas and the Black Messiah, and finally Aaron Sorkin for The Trail of the Chicago 7.
Best Adapted Screenplay
With five of the Best Picture nominees picking up Original Screenplay nominations, it’d be impossible for this category to be full of nominees as well, and in fact only two of these are. (Mank, by the way, is the sole Best Picture nominee to not be nominated for either writing category, which is yet another nail in its coffin.)
Who will win: Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller, The Father
Who shoud win: Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller, The Father
The top two here are so close in my eyes as to be in a virtual tie, so I may be wrong and we could see Chloé Zhao take home another trophy for writing Nomadland. Neither choice would be disappointing, but for voters looking to recognize The Father but going with Nomadland in the top category and Boseman in acting, this seems the obvious choice.
Kemp Powers certainly deserves recognition for adapting the stage play of the same name with One Night in Miami (and please Denzel take note that that is how you adapt a stage play to a movie), and Ramin Bahrani did a great job as well with The White Tiger, but I don’t see either standing up to the two Best Picture nominees. The White Tiger is available on Netflix.
Rounding out the category is Peter Baynham and Sacha Baron Cohen’s screenplay for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, but as I said above, there’s no question that of the 56 movies with nominations, this is the one I liked the least, by a very wide margin.
Best Animated Feature
Normally, I’d give the odds-on favorite in this category to whatever movie Pixar put out, but this year we have a Pixar versus Pixar matchup, combined with some very strong non-Pixar films.
What will win: Soul
What should win: Over the Moon
It’ll be clear by now that at times it’s hard to think that the movie you liked the most in a category won’t win, and this is definitely that case for me. Over the Moon is such an amazingly wonderful film that I have to hope and believe that it goes home with the only Oscar it’s been nominated for. Over the Moon is available on Netflix.
That said, never count Pixar out. Personally, I thought that Onward was a far superior movie to the just-okay Soul, but the fact that Soul was released closer to the end of the year (which shouldn’t matter but absolutely does) and picked up a nomination in another category (Best Sound) makes it the definite favorite of the two. Will it be good enough to beat Over the Moon? I hope not, but I can’t completely discount the possibility. Both Onward and Soul are available on Disney+.
Every year, the Academy finds at least one lesser-known animated movie to be nominated, and this year, that movie is the beautiful, almost lyrical Wolfwalkers. This is my second-favorite movie in this category, and honestly it’s a very close second. The hand-drawn animation style here is so different from any of the other nominees that it really stands out, but I suspect the voters will stick with something much more mainstream. Wolfwalkers is available on Apple TV.
And then there’s A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon. Honestly, the Academy’s animation branch’s obsession with Shaun the Sheep is something I just don’t get. It’s like all of the years when Woody Allen would get nominated just for showing up. While I can appreciate the amount of work that goes into a feature-length stop-motion film like this, I just haven’t found any entry in the series to be enjoyable, ever. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon is available Netflix.
Best Editing
If you’re in an Oscar pool at work or something, it’s generally a safe bet to guess the same movie for editing and Best Picture. There’s not an absolute correlation between the two, but more often than not they align. And so…
What will win: Sound of Metal
What should win: Sound of Metal
No, I’m not totally going with my heart here. The editing in Sound of Metal has already been recognized with a BAFTA, and it truly is well done.
The other possible winner, though, Nomadland. This award does have a tradition of going to the Best Picture (it’s historically one of the best predictors), so I won’t be at all surprised to see Zhao up on stage earlier in the night accepting this award before she returns to collect her tropies for directing and Best Picture.
That said, in many ways the editing The Father isn’t invisible, but it’s because it really does a lot to move the story forward. You already know it’s a film about a man suffering from dimentia, so it’s not a spoiler to say that a lot of the time, what he thinks is happening around him isn’t, and rather than using special effects, the movie uses edits. So for that, I could definitely see a scenario where the film’s editor Yorgos Lamprinos takes home the gold.
The other two nominees, all Best Picture nominees, are Promising Young Woman and The Trial of Chicago 7.
Production Design
OK, now we’re heading into categories that maybe require a bit of explanation. Best Production Design used to be called Best Art Direction. Strangely, it’s a bit difficult to find a good description of the award online, but things like set decoration definitely come into play.
What will win: Mank
What should win: The Father
If we really just look at set design, The Father is seems the obvious choice here. While the movie takes place entirely in one location–the main character’s London apartment–it’s a gorgeous apartment … without being distractingly so. In addition, the layout really helps the story telling, since rather than being a big open room, it’s a lot of smaller rooms, and it will completely make sense why that’s important when you see the movie.
That said, the one thing Hollywood likes more than anything else is Hollywood, and here again nomination-leader Mank is likely to take home the award. In many ways, design in a black-and-white film is more challenging, since you have to take into consideration the ways in which colors still provide constrast.
I very much enjoyed News of the World, and I’m honestly surprised it didn’t do better in the nominations (it picked up only four nominations, all in the “technical” categories like this one), but it is a truly gorgeous movie. How much of it can be considered “design”, and how much should be attributed to locations and camera angles, though, make this seem an unlikely win. News of the World is available via PVOD from Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, and Apple TV.
Rounding out the category are Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Tenet. Neither seem to have much in the way of standout design that I noticed. Tenet is available on HBO Max.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Makeup is probably a slightly easier category for most of us to wrap our heads around.
What will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
What should win: Pinocchio
Friends of mine know that I generally have a hard time watching subtitled movies at home. I find keeping the constant focus reading a movie requires to be difficult. But this project to see every nominee forced me to do that this year, and one of the real gems I saw as a result is Pinocchio. The Italian retelling of the classic, which stars Oscar winner Roberto Benigni as Geppetto, is a gorgeous, wonder-filled fantasy that sets a high bar for bringing the tale to life in a live-action film (something that Disney is bound to do with their version sooner or later.) I’m honestly not sure how much of what we see of the puppets is makeup and how much was special effects, but either way, it was stunning. (And I’ll just note here that I hope that the Academy voters know what they’re doing by nominating this movie in the makeup category and not visual effects.) Pinocchio is available via PVOD from Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, and Apple TV.
The Academy likes a good transformation in this category, so it’s more likely between Ma Rainey’s work on Viola Davis and Hillbilly Elegy’s transformation of Glenn Close from glamorous star to the dowdy matriarch. Given it’s other nominations, I’d say the slight edge there is to Ma Rainey.
The remaining two nominees in this category are Mank, which could eke out a win here, and Emma. (yes, there really is a period in the title), which is available on HBO Max.
Best Costume Design
Without costumes, you just have everyone running around in their street clothes. Of course, with costumes, sometimes you have everyone running around in their street clothes.
What will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
What should win: Pinocchio
Interestingly, this category almost exactly matches the nominees for Best Makeup, only swapping Hillbilly Elegy for Mulan, which is definitely a movie I didn’t think I’d be writing about at all at Oscar time.
But, for all of the reasons I stated above, I’d love to see Pinocchio win here. From my admittedly limited understanding of what makes a good costume, I could see Mulan getting this, but I suspect that the controversies around the movie might turn off enough voters to keep Oscar gold out of its hands. Mulan is available on Disney+.
Could voters be lured into recognizing the 1930s suits-and-ties-and-dresses from either Mank or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom? Or go for the hoop skirts from Emma., the one legitimate “costume drama” in the mix? Most likely, yes: the award will probably go to Ma Rainey, but this category is close to a toss-up.
Best Visual Effects
Being a big science fiction fan, I like to think I can recognize great effects work when I see it, but that only leads me to wonder again why Pinocchio isn’t on this list. This category is, interestingly, the only “technical” category this year that has zero Best Picture nominees.
What will win: Tenet
What should win: Love and Monsters
Despite it’s entirely non-sensical plot, horrific sound editing, and awful pacing, I suspect that Academy voters will want to recognize Christopher Nolan’s mess of a time travel epic in some way, and this category makes a lot more sense for it than Production Design. And even though the movie had so, so many other problems, it’s undeniable that the effects were fantastic.
But there’s another movie on this list that has truly stunning effects, but also everything that Tenet lacks: a really great story, great sound, great acting, really great everything: Love and Monsters. Yes, it was one of my favorite movies of 2020, and I was thrilled to see it get an Oscar nomination at all. If you haven’t seen it yet, do yourself a favor and stop reading this right now and watch this movie on PVOD on Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, or Apple TV.
While I loved Love and Monsters, I don’t really think there’s much chance it’ll win. If anything is going to take down Tenet, it’ll be The Midnight Sky. I also really enjoyed this movie, but while it’s effects are great, we’ve seen so many people floating in spaceships by now that I didn’t feel it really broke much ground. The Midnight Sky is on Netflix.
In the end, I think Mulan will have the same issues swaying voters to ignore its real-world issues here as it does in Costume Design.
The final film in this mix is The One and Only Ivan. While it was a perfectly fine, enjoyable-enough movie, it ultimately has the same problem as The Midnight Sky: are Oscar voters really ready to give the trophy to another talking animals movie? I strongly doubt it. The One and Only Ivan is available on Disney+.
Best Sound
Until recently, the Oscars had two sound categories, which totally confused absolutely everyone who wasn’t a sound designer. So I’m completely on board with having a single category. If you want to learn more about how sound editing and sound mixing (what the two old categories were called), I’d suggest you listen to the episode of the podcast The Soundtrack Show that talks all about.
What will win: Sound of Metal
What should win: Sound of Metal
When the Best Picture nominee I liked the best goes up against my most favorite movie of 2020 … but in the end I’m going with the movie that is, in the end, all about sound, or the lack thereof.
But that favorite movie of mine–Greyhound–certainly deserves consideration here. The sounds as bullets ricochet off metal, as a tordepo scrapes the side of the ship…a big part of why I wish this movie had been released in theaters is to be have been able to hear it. Greyhound is on Apple TV.
The other three movies, ranked in order of my liking of the film, are News of the World, Soul, and Mank. I really don’t feel that any of them had stand-out sound, so I do think that this category is probably at best a two-way race, but more than likely it’s already settled.
Best Cinematography
One might think that the movie with the best camera work would also be the best movie overall, but this is a category that very rarely lines up with Best Picture.
What will win: Mank
What should win: News of the World
Traditionally, the movie with the most nominations can look forward to a good night at the Oscars, but this will be a year when that film–Mank–will be lucky to walk away with much of anything. Cinematography is perhaps its best bet.
If not for the history noted above, I’d be tempted to go with Nomadland here, as it’s a truly gorgeous film.
My personal opinion was that the most beautiful of the movies in the category is the mostly-overlooked Tom Hanks film News of the World.
Now, sweeping vistas is of course not the sole criteria for best cinematography. Obviously, there’s a lot more to shooting a film than pointing the camera at pretty scenery. But neither Judas and the Black Messiah nor The Trial of the Chicago 7 are movies that are going to stand out in your mind for their visual look and feel.
Best Original Score
Anyone who knows me knows I’m a big fan of movie scores, and I did take the time to listen to all of these soundtracks, separate from the films.
Who will win: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Soul
Who should win: Emile Mosseri, Minari
A lot of times, being nominated twice in the same category can doom one’s chances of winning, but I don’t think Reznor and Ross have much to worry about. While their score for Mank is very good, I think their work on the score for Soul, helped by the jazz arrangements from Jon Batiste, will see them walking away with the gold once again.
A lot of people who aren’t me were shocked that Spike Lee’s overlong, overhyped mess of a film Da 5 Bloods managed only a single nomination, and in a category that had nothing to do with Lee or any of the actors. And while I’m decidedly not a fan of the movie, I did enjoy Terence Blanchard’s score, which harkens back to old-school orchestral themes and nicely compliments the movie. Da 5 Bloods is available on Netflix.
If traditional movie scores are your thing, you need look no further than James Newton Howard’s News of the World, which is traditional as it gets. It captures the sweeping score of the film as well as Howard always does.
And while I enjoyed all of the other soundtracks on the list, it’s Emile Mosseri’s moving score for Minari that I liked the best. As much as I am a fan of Reznor and Ross, I can’t help but hope Mosseri pulls out a win here.
Best Original Song
By far, my least favorite category of the Oscars. I hate how the Academy complains that the ceremony is too long and yet continues to devote 25-30 minutes to playing these songs, often by someone other than the original artist. (It’s like Major League Baseball saying they want to shorten games but never even considering doing away with the 3 minute commerical breaks between each half inning, which add almost an hour to every game.) But I object even more strongly to the notion that a song can be nominated here that doesn’t actually play during the movie, or have anything at all to do with the movie. Please, Academy: ban songs that only play over the credits from consideration here.
What will win: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
What shoud win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Based on my rant above, “Husavik” is the only legitimate nominee in this category. It’s the only song that plays during the movie, and the only one that actually adds to the movie in some way. That it’s also a fun song definitely helps. Yes, the movie is a pretty silly Will Ferrell movie, but it has real heart, and honestly if the scene in which Rachel McAdams sings this song to Will Farrel doesn’t bring you to tears, you might be a robot. Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga is available on Netflix.
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami plays, like the other nominees, over the end credits, but it does at least have a stronger connection to the film, given that it is sung on supporting actor nominee Leslie Odom, Jr. So if any of these credit songs has to win, I guess I’d go with this one.
“Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah and “Hear My Voice” from The Trail of the Chicago 7 have the same social message as “Speak Now”, and honestly I don’t think any of the three of them really stand out musically.
“Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead is a beautiful song that plays at the end of the otherwise overlooked film. The Life Ahead is on Netflix.
Best Documentary Feature
While some people avoid documentaries at all costs, I’ve always enjoyed them. While I can’t say I loved all of this year’s nominees, I’m nonetheless glad I watched them.
What will win: My Octopus Teacher
What should win: My Octopus Teacher
Octopuses (no, it’s not “octopi”) are some of the most amazing creatures on the planet. They are extremely intelligent, they have the ability to change the color and even the texture of their skin to match their surroundings, and they’re able to squeeze into the tiniest of places. All of this and more is explored in My Octopus Teacher, the story of a disillusioned filmmaker who began diving every day–without oxygen–in a kelp forest off the coast of South Africa, and who happened upon an octopus. Over the course of a year, the diver and the octopus form a close, special bond. The movie is beautifully shot, but the story is what really carries it. My Octopus Teacher is available on Netflix.
My second choice in this category would Collective. This Romanian film, which also picked up a nomination for Best International Film, follows a driven investigative reporter whose dogged pursuit of the truth following a deadly nightclub fire uncovered layers of corruption in the Romanian government and led to real change in the country. Collective is available on Hulu.
Time is a movie that is at times hard to watch, but perhaps that’s a criteria for a good documentary. The movie follows a young mother who refuses to give up on her husband, who was given a 60 year sentence in prison. Alternating between her struggles to raise their children alone, flashbacks using old home video movies of their pre-prison life together, and a crime drama of her trying to get him out of prison while he’s still young enough to have a life, the movie is at times heard warming and at other times gut wrenching. Unfortunately, the late parts of the movie are a bit over-edited and at times even confusing, weakening the overall picture. Time is available on Amazon Prime Video.
Crip Camp begins as a movie about it’s titular summer camp, which was designed and run specifically as a place for disabled youth to get out in the wild and enjoy the summer camp experience. However, it transforms, without much warning, into a bigger picture about the struggle for disabled rights in the country, that eventually led to the Americans with Disabilities Act. While both of those topics are in and of themselves things that many more Americans should learn about, the movie as a whole felt disjointed. Crip Camp is available on Netflix.
The Mole Agent was by far the weakest of the entries, and given some of the other extraordinary documentaries I saw last year, it’s a surprising inclusion in the category. The Chilean movie follows a private investigator who hires an elderly man to secretly infiltrate a nursing home in the hopes of uncovering proof that the residents are being abused. It turns out he finds out something else entirely, but unfortunately, what he discovers isn’t any more interesting. The mixture of hidden cameras and a real film crew (apparently they convinced the nursing home to let them shoot a documentary there, for reasons that I wasn’t really clear on) made the whole thing feel more staged than real. As for its Oscar hopes, the fact that there are two documentary features from foreign countries, but only one was also nominated for International Film, leaves this one clearly in the realm of “an honor to be nominated.” The Mole Agent is available on Hulu.
Best International Film
Of the “other” awards–the ones that go to films that rarely, if ever, play in theaters, even in a normal year, Best International Film (the category formerly known as “Best Foreign Language Film) is perhaps the most accessible. Assuming, of course, that you’re willing to read subtitles.
What will win: Collective
What should win: Collective
I honestly have no idea if Academy voters really think in terms of, “well, I can vote for this movie in this category instead of that one”, but if they do, Collective is a shoe-in here, and My Octopus Teacher is definitely winning Best Documentary. But that aside, it’s also perhaps the strongest of these nominees. The fact that it picked up a nomination in another category–a relative rarity for films in this category–certainly helps.
The same logic can be said to apply to Another Round. As the sole Best Director nominee that isn’t also a Best Picture winner, there’s definitely a scenario where voters decide to give the gold to here. However, I think that the strong social commentary from Collective will win out here, given that the message of Another Round is essentially “being drunk all of the time time is great.” Another Round is available on Hulu.
The Man Who Sold His Skin is an interesting look at art, human rights, and personal agency. It’s a wonderful movie with large portions of English dialog, so it might be a bit more accessible to American audiences than some of the other entries here, but in the end I don’t see it overcoming either The Collective or Another Round. The Man Who Sold His Skin is playing in select theaters.
If the voters are looking for strong social commentary here, then they have to mark their ballots for Better Days. This Chinese film follows a high school senior who is, like all of her classmates, under intense pressure to study for a set of standardized tests that determine what college, and thus what future, they have. At the same time, she’s ruthlessly bullied by a classmate, until she meets a boy from the streets. Part love story, part murder mystery, part stinging indictment of the Chinese education system (this movie a big part of why the Oscars are being banned in China), the movie should give pause to plenty of American parents. Better Days is available on PVOD on Amazon Prime Video, Google Play, YouTube, or Apple TV.
Quo vadis, Aida? is a film from Bosnia and Herzegovina about the 1995 Srebrenica genocide. It’s well done and powerful, but ultimately I didn’t feel it had the same punch as the other films in the category. Quo vadis, Aida? is available on Hulu.
Best Animated Short
Without question, the short films are the hardest nominees for the average person to see. Thankfully, all but one of these movies is now available on streaming.
What will win: If Anything Happens I Love You
What should win: If Anything Happens I Love You
One of the great tragedies of the end of the pandemic is the almost inevitable rise once again of out-of-control gun violence in America. The haunting If Anything Happens I Love You doesn’t really tackle the issue (it’s hard to do that in an 12 minute movie) but it does deal, in a way that maybe can only be done in a 12 minute movie, with the aftermath. If Anything Happens I Love You is available on Netflix.
One of the things I used to look forward to the most about going to see a Pixar film was the short film that proceeded it. This year’s short was Burrow, the charming story of a little rabbit trying to build a new home in the surprisingly crowded world under a garden. Like previous Pixar shorts, it’s sweet and touching, a quick bite to get you in the mood for whatever feature is to follow. (I assume the feature in question was supposed to be Soul, since I did see Onward in the theater pre-pandemic and don’t recall seeing this short.) Burrow is available on Disney+.
Opera is both a fascinating and incredibly well-done production out of South Korea. It’s a bit hard to describe, and is unfortunately the one of only two movies on this list that isn’t available online at all–I was fortunate to be able to see all of the animated and live action shorts in the theater.
Yes-People, an Iclandic film about the day-in-the-life of a group of people in, well, Iceland, didn’t really grab my attention when I watched it at home, but seeing it in the theater made a big difference. It’s a light, funny movie, and worth the time to give it a viewing. Also, there’s no dialog in the movie, beyond the one word in the title, so you don’t need to worry about subtitles. Yes-People is available to view for free on YouTube.
Genius Loci is a very, very weird movie out of France. I think I have an idea of what it might have been about, but I’m not entirely certain. It’s can be viewed on Vimeo.
Best Documentary Short
What will win: A Concerto is a Conversation
What should win: Colette
Likely winner A Concerto is a Conversation and my preferred winner Colette both involve a younger person learning about the history of an elderly person. In Conversation, a jazz pianist teaches his 91 year old grandfather about the titular music composition while learning about the older man’s history dealing with racism. Colette, on the other hand, follows the woman for whom the movie is named as she and a PhD student travel to Germany to allow Colette to visit the concentration camp where her brother, a fellow French resistance fighter, was murdered. Both of well deserving of the top prize here, so I won’t be terribly disappointed either way. Both A Concerto is a Conversation and Colette are both available on YouTube.
America’s inability to deal with racism is also the focus of A Love Song for Latasha, a moving tribute to 15-year-old Latasha Harlins, whose shooting at a South Central Los Angeles store became a flashpoint for the city’s 1992 civil uprising. A Love Song for Latasha is available on Netflix.
Do Not Split is one of two nominees this year that have caused China to ban the Oscars. Do Not Split is the story of the 2019 uprisings in Hong Kong and the militaristic response by Chinese forces to the protests. Hunger Ward likewise takes us to an international crisis, albeit one that is much less known in the US: the humantarian crisis created by the US-supported Saudi bombing of Yemen. Do Not Split is available on Vimeo, and Hunger Ward is on Pluto TV.
Best Live Action Short
What will win: Two Distant Strangers
What should win: Two Distant Strangers
If I’m being honest, this is a very, very close call for me in calling what I want to win, as both Two Distant Strangers and Feeling Through are two of the best movies of the year in any category. The extremely timely Two Distant Strangers is a take on the infinite-time-loop story, but with a modern BLM twist as it follows its protangonist, a young, successful Black man, who wakes up time and again, unable to escape the racist NYPD police officer intent on killing him. I strongly suspect that the subject matter will get this movie across the finish line, but it’s well deserved. Two Distant Strangers is on Netflix.
Feeling Through doesn’t quite have the in-the-moment feel as Two Distant Strangers, but it’s no less moving. This movie sees a young, homeless Black man trying to find a place to spend the night when he encounters a stranger who is both deaf and blind. Over the course of several hours, the two bond as they struggle to communicate. The absolute trust the stranger must place in others to do almost anything is a thing to see, while the protaganist has to constantly choose between helping his new friend and taking care of his own, very pressing needs. Feeling Through is on YouTube.
The plight of the Palestinian people is the subject of The Present, but rather than focus on big picture politics, the movie illuminates the struggles Palestinians have to perform even the most mundane of tasks. Set over a single day, it follows a man who takes his young daughter with him to buy a refrigerator that he plans to give to his wife for their anniversary. But in order to do so, he must pass through an Israeli checkpoint, both on the way into the city to buy the fridge and on his return trip to bring it home. Most of the action of the film takes place at the checkpoint, where the Israeli guards revel in their ability to be cruel for its own sake. The Present is available on Netflix.
The Letter Room, the only short to feature a mainstream Hollywood cast, with Oscar Isaac and Alia Shawkat, is about a death row guard (Isaac) who gets assigned to the prison’s mail room, where he must scan and sort prisoner mail. He also needs to make sure the letters don’t contain contraband, and while he’s not technically supposed to read the letters, a set of mail to one of the death row inmates captures his attention and his imagination. He’s shown to be a kind, gentle soul–well out of place at a maximum security prison–and part of the allure of the letters is the glimpse of a happier life than he’s leading. The Letter Room is available on PVOD on Vimeo.
White Eye was my least favorite entry in this category, but that’s not to say the movie was bad in any way. The Israeli film centers on a man who discovers his stolen bicycle chained up outside a factory. He tries to get the police to help him recover it, but when that fails, he waits around until the man whom he thinks stole the bike appears. What follows is a chain of unanticipated consequences as the situation spirals out of control. Perhaps in a year with less moving titles, it would stand out more, but as it was, I felt it was just a decent film that didn’t really hold up next to the other entries on this list. White Eye is the other movie on this list that is not currently streaming.
